FAT Tuesday Preview!!!

So, last year I attempted to predict where the biggest name free agents would land. I was quite wrong. Let's recap how poor I did:

• Petyon Manning (Dolphins, Arizona, and Denver) - Well, he went to Denver and led them to the best record in the NFL, and another first round loss;
• Vincent Jackson (Chicago) - Well, he went to Tampa Bay and everybody thought he was a mental retard, but he did quite well as the season went on, and provides that dismal team with some hope. I think if the bears didn't trade for Brandon Marshall, he would be on the Bears.
• Michael Bush (Bengals) - Backup running back extraordinaire, Bush didn't not go to the Bengals as they picked up BJGE, and he went on to continue backup duties in Chicago, eventually getting hurt as well allowing for the Kahlil Bell era;
• Mario Williams (Redskins) - Thankfully this was wrong. However, he kind of was a let down for the Bills. Much like Shawne Merriman before him;
• Brandon Jacobs (Jets) - He might as well have gone there. A kid sent Jacobs all the money in his piggy bank to bring Brandon Jacobs back. Jacobs did a nice follow up thing for the kid, but ultimately talked his way into a team suspension and missed the Super Bowl runner up run the 49ers went on;
• Brandon Lloyd/Wes Welker (Patriots) - BINGO! I nailed it!

As I look at the NFL website to review the top free agents, I see there is 1 day, 6 hours, 39 minutes, and 56 seconds. 55 Seconds, 54 Seconds... until the NFL free agency period officially opens. Teams were allowed to "legally tamper" this past weekend. Whatever that means. Is that like a non-sexual affair? Like teams can "emotionally friend" other players on other teams? Also, I don't quite understand it, but players cut from their contracts prior to the legal tampering and free agency period can be signed by other teams.

This year, I will break it down by position as last year was pretty much a mish-mash of names I could recall off the top of my head. But the truth is I am better than that, so here it goes...

QUARTERBACKS

Teams with a need: Bills, Jets, Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Vikings, Titans, Browns

It is odd that some of these teams acquired well known QBs in the past 1-2 years, and the Browns even drafted a mildly decent but raw starter in the 48 year old Brandon Weeden. Apparently the new management in Cleveland doesn't really like him. Unfortunately for all these teams, there is just not much out there that is quality. The Jaguars need help, the Cardinals just blow, and Christian Ponder averaged under 100 yards/game in a series of weeks. Despite the Vikings making the playoffs, they did it on the back of AP, the leg of Blair Walsh, and the heart of the above decent defense.

According to NFL.com, the best available QBs include Matt Moore (Dolphins), David Garrard (I dare you to tell me what team he was on last year), and Jason "I wear turtlenecks" Campbell (Bears). I can see Matt Moore staying with the Dolphins as he is decent at best and I think he is a solid backup most teams wish they had. Jason Campbell should go down to Jacksonville and compete. He was a starting QB and even started a playoff game once. He could be the impetus to steady change down there. David Garrard should go home. Rex Grossman is available, and has an NFC Championship, Super Bowl start, and several comparisons in a bad way to himself under his belt. A team with good receivers who want to rely on a deep bomb should pick him up. Perhaps he would do better as a backup on a team with a solid O-line. Maybe that is the Bills?

WIDE RECEIVERS

Teams with a need: Vikings, Lions, Cardinals, Texans, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Rams, Jaguars, Colts

This is just to name a few. The Vikings have Percy Harvin who could be outstanding, but he hates them. Hates snow. Hates dudes named "Christian." Hates the lineage of Norseman who have been labeled historically as "vikings." He wants out, and then that team only has a great running back and kicker to get the job done. Larry Fitzgerald is nearing the end and needs help, and the Johnsons in Detroit/Houston could use some performance enhancing teammates. The patriots get it done somehow every year, but sooner or later BOTH their star tight ends will be injured at the same time. The other teams really won't have anybody after free agency begins.

NFL.com has ranked their receivers by their potential impact on a team. I will show you my top 5 and quick thoughts/predictions:

1. Mike Wallace - Another weirdo who hated success on his team. Held out once and hurt his stock, but he is a playmaker that the Steelers would never admit they would miss. Word on the street is he wants to take his talents to South Beach, and I don't see why not. They are an "on-the-cusp" team, but DO NOT count out the Patriots. I predict either of those two teams.
2. Wes Welker - The little man who got called out by Giselle "I have a moat!" Bunchen Brady. He was such a great contributor in fantasy and reality football for the Patriots, but I really don't see him having that success with an inexperienced or non-innovative coach. I think he can help some teams that have changed dramatically since last season as well as teams that often need that quick dump-off pass. I always loved Jason Avant on the Eagles, but Welker would be great as the slot. He could also do great things in Chicago, Arizona, Indianapolis, and dare I say San Diego. I can't see him wanting to go to the Browns for just money, but perhaps he is the missing piece for Cincinnati? I think he could best go to the Bengals, Bears, or even Arizona.
3. Greg Jennings - He had groin surgery, but when he eased back into the games he showed what he is really worth. He is a leader who some teams could desperately use. I think some teams could use his veteran skills to help a younger receiving corps develop. These teams are contenders like Seattle, San Francisco, or even the Redskins in the NFC and Jacksonville, Miami, and the Patriots in the AFC. Just because I like the idea of it, I want Jennings to go to the Seahawks and make my new NFC West favorite team more better.
4. Danny Amendola - Identified as a "poor man's Wes Welker" he is utilized in the slot as well. But he gets hurt. Bad. And frequently. However, he had 12 more catches than the Rams' second best receiver, and played only 11 games! Word is the Eagles are pursuing him. We would certainly expect Andy Reid to go after him, but perhaps Chip Kelly knows a better way to keep this guy healthy and actually use him. Talk is the Patriots would be interested, but if it's one thing I think that New England does well is move on. Amendola is either a Ram or an Eagle.
5. Joshua Cribbs - NFL.com has several other players over him. I think he could be a great fit for the 49ers or Redskins. Teams that have instituted successfully this pistol offense/read option crap could have an outstanding athletic weapon at their disposal. Cribbs never really showed his effectiveness as a wide receiver, but his return man skills - finding holes and hitting them with speed bursts - could solidify these defenses even more. I think his speed alone could also make him a viable option for either the Jets or Bills. I think if either of these teams show interest, the Patriots will snag him up. It is tough to call. If I could pick 2 teams he would most likely be with, I would go with San Francisco or the Bills.

RUNNING BACK

Teams with a need:  Jets, Lions, Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders.

These are all teams with a starting need, in my opinion. I won't go into who needs backups. The Jets have jack shit and Shonne Greene is a free agent that will probably destroy it somewhere else. The Lions want to have the ball travel 20+ yards at a time. The Cardinals just want the ball to move forward. The Falcons CANNOT rely on Jacquizz Rogers, mark my words. And the Raiders have an ineffective and overhyped Darren McFadden. So, here's the top 5, in my opinion:

1. Ahmad Bradshaw - He has the single most embarrassing game-winning Super Bowl touchdown of all time. He is quite the weapon though, and he just needs to find a magic genie lamp and wish himself some solid bones. If the dude didn't suffer injuries he could be in the top 5 in the league I think. Alas, he plays through pain and the Giants had enough of him. He is young, and I think he should split time in Atlanta to be a real impact running back. Maybe the Titans can bring him in to help out Chris Johnson? It's not like that passing attack is going anywhere. He could probably be a great weapon, straight up runner for the Lions or Packers. But, if he wants to ensure probably equal playing time, he could go to Oakland as the runner, and McFadden as a passer. Kind of like a broken down version of what I imagine the Eagles will do with Bryce Brown and Lesean McCoy. Final thoughts - Falcons (who are definitely going to be all-in this year), Raiders, or Packers.
2. Rashard Mendenhall - The dude became a headcase while recovering from major knee reconstruction. Perhaps he got pissed at sitting out while his team rotated backs in his place and was jealous of the success Adrian Peterson displayed after the same surgery. Maybe his value is knocked down and a team can get a starting quality back at a cheap cost. This sounds like a case for the New York Jets! That will ensure another new headcase for the team and headache for Rex Ryan. Maybe he can go to Arizona or the Chargers and help in a split carry way though to make their run game more effective. That's my choices.
3. Steven Jackson - The dude has heart and leadership and is just one of those really good guys you always get to hear about. I don't think he has ever been on a winning team, though, and it's time he gets to one. Rumor has it the Falcons want him, but I think they would be stupid to get another guy in his twilight (yet still effective) years. He plays through injury and never stops playing no matter the score. Teams looking to share time amongst running backs could benefit greatly. I am believer though that no matter the offers, he stays in Saint Louis. He gets the Jerome Bettis treatment from the St. Louis fans and his career ends knowing he gave everything he could to one organization. He is one of the good guys.
4. Reggie Bush - I don't really see what the hype is. He struggled out of the gate with his career and once he seemed poised for a solid career, along came Sheldon Brown in the 2006 playoffs making him think twice about being a professional football player. He is like a lap dance of a football player. Nice when you pay for it, but gets you nothing in the end, just that 5 minute nice ride. Rumor is the Lions want him. I see that Bush has become seemingly a leader and wants to win, and he has developed into a much better football player than when he was trying to force himself to be great in New Orleans. He should go to Detroit, and add to yet more of a passing attack there.Might as well try to get up 6 receivers out there at a time.
5. Michael Turner - He certainly slowed down at the end of the past two seasons, but he has those random 100 yard games still in him. Honestly, he could help a team bang it into the endzone such as the Bengals, Eagles, Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys, or even back to the Chargers. Either way he will probably be signed to be in a reduced role - not even splitting carries at an even pace. He is tough to decide on, but he needs to be paired with a decent at best O-line. The Colts could probably use him as the stuff behind Vick Ballard is practically empty jerseys. He could be a great change of pace (i.e., slow) option for the Colts. Go Colts!

 TIGHT ENDS

Teams with a need: Anybody not playing in Foxboro, MA or New Orleans, LA.

As my friend says a great tight end is hard to find anymore. The Patriots have two, and the Saints have 1. The Falcons have Tony Gonzalez, who is the best available tight end. He will come back, I think, and go for one more ride in Atlanta. He will never achieve a Super Bowl win, though, and retire after another successful season. To me the most intriguing guy out there is Delanie Walker. The dude, if he could catch, would be a wrecking ball. I want him on the Eagles. I want to see a bowling ball blocking like a tight end is supposed to. He can develop ball catching skills, but we need additional blockers and first aid kits for Michael Vick to survive the season. I want this guy as it's been a while since the Eagles have had a multi-use player like that. Other predictions - Dustin Keller goes on to perhaps the Rams, Dolphins, or Bears. Fred Davis comes back to the Redskins. Jared Cook finds a helmet he can fit his head in at either the Rams, Dolphins, or Bears (whichever team Keller rejects), and Martellus Bennett - the Black Unicorn himself - returns to the Giants.

DEFENSE (you will gain no knowledge nor read any insight in this section)

This section will be slightly different, as I am still totally uninformed in terms of knowing these players. I am working on it, but I certainly don't expect one year of watching every football game I could is enough to fully educate me (perhaps I need more defensive players in fantasy football?). I wish I knew more about lineman so that I could be an expert here. The linebackers and secondary players get the most credit (or blame) for a team's defensive success. Analysts will say, "It all starts at the line blah blah blah..." Then they will mention the other 3 to 7 players beyond the line by name. I think the most impactful free agent would be Dominque Rogers-Cromartie. He showed great physical presences when he wanted to. His only problem was quitting too early in the season. Get him on a staunch defense and he could do well. Where that is, i don't know. Perhaps Atlanta? They got the most out of another Philadelphia dump off - Asante Samuel. At linebacker, Dannell Ellerbe is primed for a pay day. I watched him play a few times, and he learned and then, in my opinion, supplanted Ray Lewis as the Ravens main linebacker. He can go to a team who desperately needs his presence. The Jaguars, Vikings, and Rams could use him, and perhaps the Chargers as well. I just don't know. The two top safeties are Glover Quin (Texans) and Dashon Goldson (49ers). I would like Goldson over Quin. I remember a couple teams lighting up the Texans secondary quite a bit. Goldson seems like more of a solid player. I would like Goldson with the Eagles, just to provide that name recognition and leadership to the team. The Dolphins could use the services of Quinn to stay strong on the back end of their defense.

KICKERS

Billy Cundiff will pop up on some team, somewhere, and disappoint an entire city.

Well, there you have it! My probably wrong, completely uneducated look at the best of the best in this year's free agent class. May your team get the best available player.