51 posts and 4 months ago I wrote about my bold Philadelphia Eagles predictions for the 2012-2013 season. Specifically, I briefly broke down their schedule, including the upcoming Week 1 matchup at the Cleveland Browns.
What should be a no brainer will probably turn in to a closer game than it should. Historically, the Eagles do not get off to a great start under Andy Reid. The last time before the last time they played the AFC North, though, they did, finishing 13-3 and going to the Superbowl. The Browns have not changed, and I think after an early struggle of a game, the Eagles smoke them at the end. Eagles 31-17. (1-0)
With recent developments and a preseason that was marred with injuries to Michael Vick, have my predictions changed? Not really. The Eagles usually don't get off to great starts as far as I can remember, but last year they had a layup in opening day against St. Louis that almost went sour (fortunately Steven Jackson got hurt after his blistering touchdown run) that the Eagles eventually recovered and dominated the last 3 quarters of that game.
This year, what promises yet again to be an explosive Eagles offense, who was ranked 4th last year in total offense (399.1 yards per game); 9th in passing offense; 5th in rushing offense; 8th in total defense; 10th in passing defense; and 16th in rushing defense finished AT LEAST in the top half of the league in these major statistics, top 10 in 5 out of the 6 stat categories I mentioned. Cleveland, on the other hand, was 30th against the run (534 rushing attempts against or 33.4 attempts per game) but 2nd in pass defense (469 attempts, or 29.3 attempts per game with 265 completions or 56.5 percent completions), and ultimately putting them at 10th overall on defense - 2 spots lower than the Eagles. I will not state the Browns' offensive stats as they have a rookie quarterback, rookie running back, and a second year receiver they hope to make a star. But not this week. Okay, if you really wanted to know, they were 24th ranked passing and 28th in rushing offense - behind Madden '12 cover boy Peyton Hillis. The coach is the same for Cleveland. The line is pretty much the same for Cleveland, the stank is still the same from Cleveland as well.
In an attempt to cater to the new wave of pass happy offensive schemes in the NFL, the Browns went with an old rookie quarterback to lead the charge behind potential rookie phenom Trent Richardson. However, he has just had knee surgery a month ago that was minor, albeit a factor in this weekend's game. I think that the Eagles being 16th in running defense is a weird statistic. The last four games the Eagles played they practically dominated - although it was against weaker teams. The defense looked crisper yet they still allowed 100+ rushing yard games for 3 out of the 4 starting running backs they faced in that span. The beginning of the season for the Eagles also exposed their run defense, in a new defensive scheme under a new defensive coordinator and line coach with a turnstyle of new players, as being weak. The front 4 came together to lead the league in sacks, showing they can indeed get in the backfield, but once a running back is able to get past these four, they have a potential to break a big play.
I think some of the younger players the Eagles have with them this year allow the excitement of playing for a team contending for a Super Bowl on paper may get the best of them. I remember Casey Mathews last year was able to paint a picture instead of stopping Steven Jackson on the second defensive play of the year last year rather than stop him. If Richardson is able to find that type of hole in the first half, then the game may turn out to be more of a nail-biter than it deserves to be, and the Browns certainly hope that Richardson becomes that type of player.
I think the Cleveland secondary is over rated. Joe Haden is a star and it looks like, despite being suspended, that his appeal of said suspension will allow him to play. However, with a weak rushing defense means Vick will have the time to throw the ball. Can DeSean Jackson outrun Joe Haden? Probably. And when he does, it will be lights out. Then they roll coverage to DeSean and Maclin/Celek/Avant/McCoy become threats in the passing game. McCoy and Vick can both rush (provided both of these guys stay healthy) and just rip apart this supposed 10th overall defense. I think that rating will prove to have been too high for them as they will probably finish the week in the bottom 10 of defenses. Of course, provided the Eagles play up to their potential.
As far as the Eagles defense goes, with constant threats of sacks in Brandon Weeden's old-young rookie quarterback face, and Greg Little the only real option against pro-bowl caliber Nnamdi Asomugha, I expect big things for the defense. Should the Eagles jump to a quick lead (like they always try to) I expect the ball to come out of Trent Richardson's hands and on the throwing arm of Weeden. At some point in the game the Eagles will relax everything and the Browns can get some garbage time stats, including Richardson ripping off a run or two. Oh yeah, the Eagles also acquired the Browns' safety David Sims a week ago.
Bottom Line: The Eagles need to murder the Browns this weekend to make themselves look more complicated and threatening then they really are before the Ravens come to town next week. If they sleep on Cleveland, however, individual players may get hurt or staph infections if they are not paying attention. Should Vick go down in this game, I think Nick Foles can adequately control the offense in this environment, especially if McCoy is then given the ball to utterly destroy the Browns.
Fantasy options: I think I will roll with Trent Richardson as my number 2 running back. He was drafted early in my blog teams' league so I might as well use him, right? I also have the Eagles Defense, Alex Henery, Maclin, and McCoy on my various other teams. I think I am going to roll with all 4 of them as great options to put up properly projected points, and then some.
Change of Prediction/Score?: Still a win, but 38-21.
I think the Cleveland secondary is over rated. Joe Haden is a star and it looks like, despite being suspended, that his appeal of said suspension will allow him to play. However, with a weak rushing defense means Vick will have the time to throw the ball. Can DeSean Jackson outrun Joe Haden? Probably. And when he does, it will be lights out. Then they roll coverage to DeSean and Maclin/Celek/Avant/McCoy become threats in the passing game. McCoy and Vick can both rush (provided both of these guys stay healthy) and just rip apart this supposed 10th overall defense. I think that rating will prove to have been too high for them as they will probably finish the week in the bottom 10 of defenses. Of course, provided the Eagles play up to their potential.
As far as the Eagles defense goes, with constant threats of sacks in Brandon Weeden's old-young rookie quarterback face, and Greg Little the only real option against pro-bowl caliber Nnamdi Asomugha, I expect big things for the defense. Should the Eagles jump to a quick lead (like they always try to) I expect the ball to come out of Trent Richardson's hands and on the throwing arm of Weeden. At some point in the game the Eagles will relax everything and the Browns can get some garbage time stats, including Richardson ripping off a run or two. Oh yeah, the Eagles also acquired the Browns' safety David Sims a week ago.
Bottom Line: The Eagles need to murder the Browns this weekend to make themselves look more complicated and threatening then they really are before the Ravens come to town next week. If they sleep on Cleveland, however, individual players may get hurt or staph infections if they are not paying attention. Should Vick go down in this game, I think Nick Foles can adequately control the offense in this environment, especially if McCoy is then given the ball to utterly destroy the Browns.
Fantasy options: I think I will roll with Trent Richardson as my number 2 running back. He was drafted early in my blog teams' league so I might as well use him, right? I also have the Eagles Defense, Alex Henery, Maclin, and McCoy on my various other teams. I think I am going to roll with all 4 of them as great options to put up properly projected points, and then some.
Change of Prediction/Score?: Still a win, but 38-21.
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